IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-12.6	#339
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.0	#98
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-7.5	#339

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.1	#327

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.6%	19.9%	3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	23.0%	60.3%	22.9%
.500 or above in Conference	61.1%	88.7%	61.0%
Conference Champion	7.3%	12.3%	7.3%
Last Place in Conference	5.7%	0.0%	5.7%

First Four	3.4%	19.5%	3.4%
First Round	1.7%	9.9%	1.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.9	0.0 - 1.9
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.7	0.0 - 2.5
Quad 2	0.0 - 1.3	0.0 - 3.9
Quad 3	0.2 - 2.4	0.2 - 6.3
Quad 4	10.3 - 10.2	10.5 - 16.5

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	8	@ Villanova	L	60-89	0.1%
Nov 09, 2018	160	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	68-81	7%
Nov 12, 2018	89	@ DePaul	L	64-82	2%
Nov 20, 2018	260	Navy	L	63-70	36%
Nov 25, 2018	331	Mount St. Mary's	L	67-68	57%
Nov 28, 2018	129	@ George Mason	L	66-81	6%
Dec 03, 2018	2	@ Virginia	L	46-77	0.2%
Dec 05, 2018	269	Binghamton	L	65-72	38%
Dec 08, 2018	237	Towson	L	66-74	23%
Dec 22, 2018	102	@ Old Dominion	L	57-74	5%
Dec 29, 2018	342	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	69-68	45%
Jan 05, 2019	341	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	69-68	64%
Jan 07, 2019	353	Savannah St.	W	88-83	75%
Jan 12, 2019	348	South Carolina St.	W	76-73	70%
Jan 15, 2019	305	@ Howard	L	74-78	27%
Jan 19, 2019	347	@ N.C. A&T	W	74-72	49%
Jan 21, 2019	302	@ NC Central	L	65-70	27%
Jan 26, 2019	299	Bethune-Cookman	L	78-83	45%
Jan 28, 2019	352	Florida A&M	W	72-67	75%
Feb 02, 2019	345	@ Coppin St.	W	70-68	48%
Feb 09, 2019	348	@ South Carolina St.	W	76-73	51%
Feb 11, 2019	353	@ Savannah St.	W	88-83	57%
Feb 23, 2019	277	Norfolk St.	L	70-76	39%
Feb 25, 2019	305	Howard	L	74-78	46%
Mar 02, 2019	351	@ Delaware St.	W	70-66	54%
Mar 04, 2019	341	@ Maryland Eastern Shore	W	69-68	44%
Mar 07, 2019	345	Coppin St.	W	70-68	66%
Projected Record						10.5 - 16.5	8.4 - 7.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.3	1.4	2.3	2.2	0.9	0.2		7.3	1st
2nd										0.1	0.7	2.8	4.0	2.0	0.4	0.0			10.0	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.6	3.6	4.7	1.8	0.2	0.0				11.0	3rd
4th								0.0	0.5	3.7	5.0	1.6	0.2						11.1	4th
5th								0.3	3.4	5.2	2.0	0.2							11.1	5th
6th							0.3	2.5	5.4	2.2	0.1	0.0							10.5	6th
7th						0.1	1.4	4.6	2.5	0.2									8.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.8	4.1	3.1	0.3	0.0									8.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.7	3.2	3.1	0.6	0.0										7.5	9th
10th			0.0	0.5	2.2	3.0	0.8	0.0											6.6	10th
11th		0.0	0.5	1.8	1.8	0.5	0.1												4.6	11th
12th	0.1	0.6	1.1	0.9	0.3	0.1													3.0	12th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.5	3.2	5.0	7.6	9.7	11.1	12.2	12.1	11.5	9.6	7.4	4.6	2.6	0.9	0.2			Total

Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
15-1	98.3%	0.9		0.8	0.1	0.0
14-2	85.8%	2.2		1.6	0.6	0.0
13-3	50.6%	2.3		0.9	1.2	0.2	0.0
12-4	18.7%	1.4		0.3	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-5	3.0%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	7.3%	7.3		3.8	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.2%		48.7%	48.7%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
15-1	0.9%		42.6%	42.6%		16.0																0.0	0.4	0.5
14-2	2.6%		30.5%	30.5%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.7	1.8
13-3	4.6%		16.1%	16.1%		16.0																0.0	0.7	3.8
12-4	7.4%		10.0%	10.0%		16.0																	0.7	6.6
11-5	9.6%		5.6%	5.6%		16.0																	0.5	9.1
10-6	11.5%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.2	11.3
9-7	12.1%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	12.0
8-8	12.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	12.2
7-9	11.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
6-10	9.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
5-11	7.6%																							7.6
4-12	5.0%																							5.0
3-13	3.2%																							3.2
2-14	1.5%																							1.5
1-15	0.6%																							0.6
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		3.6%	3.6%	0.0%	16.0															0.0	0.1	3.5	96.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%